Archive for the 'Forecasting' Category
Blogging is about more than just writing and posting your articles to your weblog. If you have any desire to actually earn a living from your online publishing pursuits - be it through contextual advertising, CPM (Cost per M, M=1000) advertising, or affiliate programs, you have to measure and improve your weblog/ website’s performance.
Web metrics […]
July 16th, 2006 | Posted in Forecasting, Moving Averages, Web metrics, Web analytics, Web optimization | No Comments
The free MMA spreadsheet (MMA = Multiple Moving Averages) from my last post can be used in a number of ways. It’s currently set up with MA (Moving Average) windows of 7d, 14, 28d and multiples of 28 days. When analyzing the stock market, there’s a tendency to use windows of 100 d and 200 […]
July 15th, 2006 | Posted in Forecasting, Moving Averages | No Comments
Several months ago, I made a promise to put together a spreadsheet that bloggers could use to calculate MMAs (Multiple Moving Averages). It’s been a while but I finally have a free one for anyone interested.
I use my MMA charts to get an idea of what’s been happening, as well as what type of pageviews […]
July 14th, 2006 | Posted in Forecasting, Moving Averages | 1 Comment
Don’t let the title of this post scare you. The general math formulas that you need are relatively simple. It’s understanding the analysis that takes some effort. This first in a series of posts is directed at those of you bloggers and website publishers that are obsessively looking at your site traffic and related stats […]
May 22nd, 2006 | Posted in Sums, Forecasting, Website revenue, Golden ratio, Fibonacci numbers | 1 Comment
Despite my previous caution against confusing relationship vs correlation, there is typically a direction relationship between the amount of website traffic you gain and the amount of advertising revenue you earn. If your traffic drops significantly and for a sustained period, so to will your revenue. If your traffic increases, so will your revenue.
This relationship […]
May 10th, 2006 | Posted in Forecasting, Correlation + conclusion, Website revenue | No Comments
If discussions in the blogosphere are any indication, a lot of bloggers (including myself) worry overly that their visitor count or pageviews or ad clicks went down in the past 7 days. Instead of worrying about the short-term, look at the big picture and do a bit of forecasting.
Of course, there’s no way that I […]
May 5th, 2006 | Posted in Forecasting, Website revenue | 5 Comments
When I was a freshman in college, there were two “bird” courses that were considered not only easy but actually fun to take. One was “The Hi-Fidelity of Physics”, where I saw one of the very first CD players ever made (1981?). The other course was “The Uses and Abuses of Statistics”. This course was […]
April 28th, 2006 | Posted in Forecasting, Correlation + conclusion | 1 Comment
A Multiple Moving Average, or MMA, is a collection of Moving Averages (MAs), plotted together to simultaneously show short- and long-term trends. As with MAs, MMAs can be used to detect trends in any type of real-world data. They’re used in the stock market, but I use them to analyze my website and weblog metrics […]
April 22nd, 2006 | Posted in Averages, Forecasting, Website revenue | 3 Comments
A Moving Average, or MA, is an important metric (measure) in statistical analysis of real-world data. MAs are actually used to analyze stocks and indexes in the stock market. In fact, I used MMAs (Multiple Moving Averages) in 2000 to correctly predict 3 of 4 significant stock market turns. But you can also use MAs […]
April 13th, 2006 | Posted in Averages, Forecasting | 4 Comments