Archive for the 'Forecasting' Category

A Review of Web Metrics, Analytics + Optimization for Bloggers

Blogging is about more than just writing and posting your articles to your weblog. If you have any desire to actually earn a living from your online publishing pursuits - be it through contextual advertising, CPM (Cost per M, M=1000) advertising, or affiliate programs, you have to measure and improve your weblog/ website’s performance.
Web metrics […]

How To Use The MMA Spreadsheet

The free MMA spreadsheet (MMA = Multiple Moving Averages) from my last post can be used in a number of ways. It’s currently set up with MA (Moving Average) windows of 7d, 14, 28d and multiples of 28 days. When analyzing the stock market, there’s a tendency to use windows of 100 d and 200 […]

Free Multiple Moving Averages Spreadsheet

Several months ago, I made a promise to put together a spreadsheet that bloggers could use to calculate MMAs (Multiple Moving Averages). It’s been a while but I finally have a free one for anyone interested.
I use my MMA charts to get an idea of what’s been happening, as well as what type of pageviews […]

Applying Stock Trading Techniques To Your Blog Forecasting - Part 1

Don’t let the title of this post scare you. The general math formulas that you need are relatively simple. It’s understanding the analysis that takes some effort. This first in a series of posts is directed at those of you bloggers and website publishers that are obsessively looking at your site traffic and related stats […]

The Correlation Between Website Traffic and Advertising Revenue

Despite my previous caution against confusing relationship vs correlation, there is typically a direction relationship between the amount of website traffic you gain and the amount of advertising revenue you earn. If your traffic drops significantly and for a sustained period, so to will your revenue. If your traffic increases, so will your revenue.
This relationship […]

How Long Before I Make X Dollars Per Day?

If discussions in the blogosphere are any indication, a lot of bloggers (including myself) worry overly that their visitor count or pageviews or ad clicks went down in the past 7 days. Instead of worrying about the short-term, look at the big picture and do a bit of forecasting.
Of course, there’s no way that I […]

Correlation Vs Conclusion

When I was a freshman in college, there were two “bird” courses that were considered not only easy but actually fun to take. One was “The Hi-Fidelity of Physics”, where I saw one of the very first CD players ever made (1981?). The other course was “The Uses and Abuses of Statistics”. This course was […]

Multiple Moving Averages - The Next Step To Blog Forecasting

A Multiple Moving Average, or MMA, is a collection of Moving Averages (MAs), plotted together to simultaneously show short- and long-term trends. As with MAs, MMAs can be used to detect trends in any type of real-world data. They’re used in the stock market, but I use them to analyze my website and weblog metrics […]

Moving Averages - The First Step To Forecasting Your Blog’s Health

A Moving Average, or MA, is an important metric (measure) in statistical analysis of real-world data. MAs are actually used to analyze stocks and indexes in the stock market. In fact, I used MMAs (Multiple Moving Averages) in 2000 to correctly predict 3 of 4 significant stock market turns. But you can also use MAs […]