How To Use The MMA Spreadsheet
The free MMA spreadsheet (MMA = Multiple Moving Averages) from my last post can be used in a number of ways. It’s currently set up with MA (Moving Average) windows of 7d, 14, 28d and multiples of 28 days. When analyzing the stock market, there’s a tendency to use windows of 100 d and 200 d when forecasting a stock market index or the price of a stock. Why 100 or 200 days? Well keep reading.
The way the spreadsheet is set up right now, the graph gives you too much information that’s hard to make heads or tails of. There are too many Moving Averages displayed, and the resulting graph is a muddle. Reducing the number of windows to 3 windows clarifies things for medium- and long-term patterns.
In truth, when you’re looking at trendlines, you should focus on just a few. What’s important to you? For me, short-term trends are a curiousity. I plot MAs of 7d, 14d, and 28d just to look at them. But it’s the long-term trends that are much more important. For example, if after 1 year, a website/ weblog is showing steadily rising 100d and 200d MA curves, then I’m very happy. And at the same time, I can see how each day’s traffic or revenue is doing against 100d and 200d curves.
I’ve tweaked my own copy of the spreadsheet to plot daily pageviews against 100 d and 200 d MA windows. It’s not that hard for you to do, if you know how to use Excel or OpenOffice, etc. But if you want me to post a new version, just ask.
Pick your own windows, depending on the durations that are important to.
